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Stochastic Disorder Problems

Probability Theory and Stochastic Modelling 93

By (author) Albert N. Shiryaev
Foreword by H. Vincent Poor
Translated by Andrei Iacob
Format: Hardback
Language: English
Publisher: Springer Nature Switzerland AG, Cham, Switzerland
Published: 20th Mar 2019
Dimensions: w 156mm h 234mm d 24mm
Weight: 764g
ISBN-10: 3030015254
ISBN-13: 9783030015251
Barcode No: 9783030015251
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Synopsis
This monograph focuses on those stochastic quickest detection tasks in disorder problems that arise in the dynamical analysis of statistical data. These include quickest detection of randomly appearing targets, of spontaneously arising effects, and of arbitrage (in financial mathematics). There is also currently great interest in quickest detection methods for randomly occurring intrusions in information systems and in the design of defense methods against cyber-attacks. The author shows that the majority of quickest detection problems can be reformulated as optimal stopping problems where the stopping time is the moment the occurrence of disorder is signaled. Thus, considerable attention is devoted to the general theory of optimal stopping rules, and to its concrete problem-solving methods. The exposition covers both the discrete time case, which is in principle relatively simple and allows step-by-step considerations, and the continuous-time case, which often requires more technical machinery such as martingales, supermartingales, and stochastic integrals. There is a focus on the well-developed apparatus of Brownian motion, which enables the exact solution of many problems. The last chapter presents applications to financial markets. Researchers and graduate students interested in probability, decision theory and statistical sequential analysis will find this book useful.

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"Researchers and graduate students interested in optimal stopping, decision theory, and statistical sequential analysis will find this book useful. It is a very welcome addition to the literature of these fields." (Rick Durrett, MAA Reviews, December 14, 2019)